Why RepRap is failing

I finally did. This guy just wants to bitch and moan and and behave like some latter-day Jeremiah while having no palpable stake in trying to advance the project, again like Jeremiah. When he actually puts a few hundred hours into work instead of just running his mouth I'll be more likely to listen to him again. Till then... ><

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/05/2008 10:19PM by Forrest Higgs.

Reprapper Wrote:
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> It is because people will actively make decisions
> to avoid having to learn a new system.

If that were the case there wouldn't be any Windows users switching to Apple.

> If they invest the time and effort to learn how to use a
> commercial 3D printer, will they want to switch to
> an alternative that doesn't behave how they are
> used to?

If they have the money to buy and maintain a commercial 3D printer they don't need a RepRap and aren't in the "target demographic".

> Why are there still so many Windows
> boxes being sold today?

Because Microsoft makes it financially difficult for major PC makers to leave Windows off their systems. People who buy pre-built PC systems end up paying for Windows even if they plan to switch to Linux. Microsoft counts that as a Windows box.

> Waiting for some commercial company to come along
> and do all of the hard work for us will not
> further the goals of reprap, if the goal of reprap
> is to produce a 3D printer for the masses.

"The Masses" are NOT going to buy a commercial 3D printer at the prices a commercial company would have to charge to stay solvent. If you can afford a commercial unit, even the relatively inexpensive"Desktop Factory" at $5000, then you are not part of "The Masses" and don't need the RepRap Project. Even if you can afford the $3000+ of a Fab@Home kit you don't need the RepRap project.

> If it is just to produce a good 3D printer without
> regard to market share then the point is open for
> further debate.

What "market" would the RepRap be in? So far it seems to have 100% of the critical sub-$1000 market.

[imgs.xkcd.com]

haha

That's about how RepRap has affected me! My girlfriend is very tolerant though!

Demented

Interesting discussion. I haven't much to add other than to say I'm looking at joining Zach in the ranks of the 'unemployed' to concentrate fulltime on Reprap. In my case I'll be starting a PhD next year that I'll be leveraging to be useful to the Reprap project (final topic still to be decided). Initially I'll be cutting back to 15 hours paid work for the first year with the idea I'll cut that as well in 2010.

That strikes me as a symptom of an active and growing project! At the moment it may be immature and messy but thats part of what I want to fix. Find a way to help if it concerns you so much.

Thats enough with feeding the trolls for me :-)

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Waiting for some commercial company to come along and do all of the hard work for us will not further the goals of reprap, if the goal of reprap is to produce a 3D printer for the masses. If it is just to produce a good 3D printer without regard to market share...

Someone has to do the hard work to bootstrap a reprap. That's the major barrier to adoption right now.

And you know, I don't care about market share. At all. In the slightest. There's nothing being sold here, we aren't marketing. In due course when parts become easier to obtain and contruction is simpler, market share will pick up. This is a project which no commercial entity is ever giong to do, and so it isn't ever going to become pointless or obsolete. Anyway, I'm repeating myself.

Quote

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cautionary.png

[www.xkcd.com] seemed more apt.

Negative feedback for a change... That could be useful. I don't agree with it, though.

I can't imagine Zach having been even more productive. He's really cranking out new PCBs and shipping them out to everyone. This is both important work for the RepRap adoption AND he's doing it better than anyone could expect of him.

If Adrian is working on a granule extruder, I can't 'blame him' like you do. That would be one of the more important achievements I'd like to see. It will make it possible to recycle prints and recycle waste plastics. Making useful stuff out of useless (or even problematic) stuff is worth a lot! I grant Adrian to work on his personal goals because he started the project after all. I don't see how it's hurting the project that he's not 'dictating the project'. But you were saying that he was dictating the project? And why are decisions make by the entire core group, then?

3% market share:
I'm not sure why you see it like that. 3% of the prototyping market? Or 3% of the homes. I would be quite happy to see RepRap achieve 3% of the homes, since that might just become its future end-market! Don't forget the Rep in RepRap, which is a competitive advantage a company cannot choose. Another company might make a FFF machine by itself, might even succeed, but will it replicate itself? No, the company would be dumb if its profits depend on selling the machine. If they chip consumables to protect their printer supply market, there will almost certainly be Chinese clone products. But can you protect the supply if the commercial machine can be made by ordinary people. People will find ways to use their own plastics... Perhaps only the oil companies that want to sell plastics would do good on that strategy (but still: all of the oil companies and plastics industries). There would still be no competitive advantage there...

If RepRap is dead, I think that the every last RepRapper should have abandoned the project by now. I'm really into it because I see wonderful things happening on a daily basis (nophead making a Darwin, hurray ! )

RepRapper: I am mistaken to claim that Linux is less stable and well supported than Windows.
I assure you, it is. [www.budgetdedicated.com] run hundreds linux boxes at 266 days up time (average, that is). Installing new hardware and scheduled hardware changes are what keeps this number down. Those are servers, my linux desktop is stable *enough*. If it isn't completely rock solid, that certainly my fault not Ubuntu's.

I guess with software 'soft' switching costs are highest: people don't like to change their ways unless the advantage is great. Just like you said. The desktop is where linux has always been least competitive, but is gaining foothold gradually. There's no 'year of linux', I agree, but I see a future for Ubuntu in the OS market.
But for 3D printers, there IS a great advantage, and people aren't used to their old 3D printer because they don't have one yet...

Zach: "we're going where no other open source software has gone before"
Yeah, baby, yeah!!

About xkcd, this one is my favorate concerning self-replication:

Source: [xkcd.com]

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Regards,

Erik de Bruijn
[Ultimaker.com] - [blog.erikdebruijn.nl]

Some more things.

Ru: Again, people have volunteered to sort out the wiki pages; I've no idea if they were ever given access?

I've made some changes. But not many people do. If more of you would do this, there would be much better documentation. I think anyone should be able to get an account and that some highly involved people should monitor the RSS feed of changes made and review the diffs. If there's disagreement it should be brought up!

Non-core members being able to print:
I've printed 3 different working parts. My problem was that I didn't print rafts YET, have no encoder YET, and use HDPE which is probably hardest to print in. Those are all matters of time only. When I have time again, I'm sure I'll get results as well. So will others.
I contend that a 16 year old can build a RepRap. Debugging and repairing it is harder though. Through the forums you can get help, though. But time is mostly what you need (and what I don't have much).

I do thank RepRapper to question the open source aspect. We tend to group think on this issue since it is what brought many of us to this project. We ARE biased and we should realize that. But some bias is good, we're walking the road less traveled by. Doing things differently is what is necessary for all innovations. I still believe that open source will make all the difference for this project.

To RepRapper: it will always help (even, or especially if you're emotional on the subject) to show where you think the problem lies in a way that you don't blame people but tell them what they are doing and how you feel it should work better. This is more constructive. Don't criticize the person, but their behavior. I'm afraid many people are being not as kind as you would deserve, but it's a counter-reaction that you can expect.

To Andy D.: I like your comment about the way this discussion resembles a sad aspect in political discussion. Makes me think of this quote:

"Leaders do not avoid, repress, or deny conflict, but rather see it as an opportunity."
WARREN BENNIS

To RepRapper: Since you say you're building a RepRap, please help us improve things. Bringing up issues with the development process is also important. Still, you may need some more patience because progress takes time and dedication. People are putting a lot of that into RepRap now, so there's wonderful progress up ahead!

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Regards,

Erik de Bruijn
[Ultimaker.com] - [blog.erikdebruijn.nl]

RepRap project seems extremely healthy for an ~3 year old project. I'll probably wait a little more to the point where I can buy an entire stable kit, I don't have the stamina of some of the other developers on here.

I suggest you wait one more year. I predict the ~$500 stable baseline kit will be readily available then (it's mostly available now, if you want to jump the gun and take a few risks).

RepRap has grown from obscurity to the point where I am seeing it more and more in conventional media (For example, I read [www.msnbc.msn.com] today and laughed.)

If the statement "RepRap is a failure" is a true statement, I want to be a "failure" too!

ErikDeBruijn Wrote:
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> I contend that a 16 year old can build a RepRap.
> Debugging and repairing it is harder though.
> Through the forums you can get help, though. But
> time is mostly what you need (and what I don't
> have much).

this is true, I've only just turned 17 and I'm building one of Ians repraps, admittedly I'm more techy than most 17 year olds are, but the instructions I found are pretty simple to follow (only one or two unclear parts that aren't too hard to work out) so I'm pretty sure most of the people my age that I know could also do it, if they put their minds to it.

I'm going for a bright 12 year-old with Tommelise!

Forest,

You have a bright 12 year-old sitting around waiting for your experimentation? Should the rest of us start looking for this mythical and rare bright 12 year-old for future testing purposes? I'd just settle for anyone who is bright and does not have a background in electronics, software, or mechanical engineering.

Demented

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Should the rest of us start looking for this mythical and rare bright 12 year-old for future testing purposes?

In the spirit of the project, you should probably see about creating one of your own.

...all about selfreplication

'sid

But seriously; I can remember early forays into things like meccano and lego technic and capsela... I doubt I was totally representetive of some 'average child', but I didn't have any major problems.

Assemble the bits according to the nice diagrams, wire it up and boosh, away you go. There's no reason why the mechanical assembly of a cartesian bot should be any more complex, given the availability of suitable components and suitable instructions. I don't think I wielded a soldering iron til I was about 14 though, so I don't have any opinions of the soldering skills of a twelve year old

I've seen some twelve year olds woodworking like they do that for a living.
I was impressed really impressed what the two kids made that day, it was kind of a stool case with some safe-deposit that had a "don't ask me how"-lock.
Well true, children of a cabinet maker, but twelve, no that's not true.. one was twelve the other was 13 (and a half if you ask him)
So I see no reason why any twelve year old shouldn't be able to learn anything that he wants.
Sure they'll need advice, noone knows how to use any powertool by birth, but once they are familiar with using tools, you'd never guess what they are able to make, just because they can imagine things I cannot anymore

Wasn't lee krasnow twelve when he made his first puzzlebox too?
Nevermind

But I think it's not the goal of a reprap to be made by any interchangeable twelve year old in the world, is it?
As long as those who are interested in this machine are able to understand how it's done and can build one that'll be enough
And I do think that'll be the case very soon, most can , some don't because of the lack of powertools mostly.

To be honest, if you cannot imagine solutions for problems building this printer, you cannot imagine things to print as well.
then it's just a copymachine for "internetfiles" ... boring.

'sid

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/18/2008 08:07AM by sid.

... i didn't allow my sons (7 and 10) soldering, but they already have some experience with 'electronic-experimental'-kits from 'Kosmos' and 'Schuko'.

Both managed to build some of the experiments on their own - the 7-year-old some blinking lights, the older (with the much complexer "Schuko"-set) some theft-alarms and TTL-amplifiers!

For some more 'sophisticated' tasks the older reprogrammed a Lego-NXT-brick, and both are real happy, when i allow them to 'hack' with my "Fischertechnik-Robotic"-sets (we have then some days a gigantic mess in the living-rooms!)

Sure, they didn't really 'understand' the basic function of the components, but with a proper documentation it's a "child-play" ...

Viktor

When I was about 12, or perhaps 15, I purchased a book 'interfacing projects for the BBC micro' (or similar) and I got stuck in with many of those. THe real driver to get the book was the final project - an X-Y plotter (dot matrix printers just couldnt do the line quality I wanted for the CAD program I was writing).

I never did build the plotter - thwarted by the vagueness of the plans - based on getting an old drafting machine. No budget. But I learned a lot and got a plotter for xmas.

My 13yo neice is great at assembling electronics kits. Her brother (15) just wants to shoot people on the internet all day.

So, given a load of bits that are designed to assemble, some motivation and a bit of help then teens should have no problems with a reprap.

>
> You have a bright 12 year-old sitting around
> waiting for your experimentation?
>

Nope. All mine grew up.

>
> Should the rest
> of us start looking for this mythical and rare
> bright 12 year-old for future testing purposes?
>

Hell, I had a crazy uncle who walked me through mixing and corning black powder when I was eight. My stepdad got me an old Ford Model-T spark coil when I was ten and by the time I was twelve I had my first Tesla coil rolling. My grandfather made sure that I knew what 110v AC felt like about that time so I'd be sure and not forget to be careful when I worked around electricity. That's not a lesson you forget quickly, mind.

Now they may have been trying to get rid of me, but somehow I don't think so. While they always made sure that I had a good set of safety glasses, they weren't too concerned that I might get the odd burn or cut. I got both in abundance and still have a few to show after all of these years. The point was, though, that I've not been afraid to get stuck into just about anything over the years, careful, but not afraid.

I think kids are so rare and precious in families these days that parents tend to wrap them in cotton wool. As a result, they grow up having never used a saw and with only the vaguest notion of which end of a hammer hits the nail.

We've got to fix that. That's one of the reasons that reprap is so attractive to me. It's damned hard to hurt yourself on one, never mind kill yourself, unless you are a terminal nitwit who does things like soak power supplies with a garden hose.

There's nothing mythical about that bright 12 year old. They're just not being given the chance to develop their hands and minds by overprotective parents egged on by our idiotic social workers and legions of lawyers.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 08/18/2008 05:05PM by Forrest Higgs.

I have two kids, 5 and 10, who are both fairly bright. This weekend, I printed off two RepRap rings, which they though were really cool. I used AOI to scale down the one in for the five-year-old.

My ten-year-old is interested in designing objects to print. I've got a PC that I'll be installing Ubuntu on and I'll add AOI for him. He'll be starting middle school a year from now. By that time, I hope a) he'll be reasonably proficient at using the RepRap and b) I'll be in a position where I can help his school build their own.

This is what I find so exciting about Reprap. Even modern parents, like Steve, aren't afraid to let their kids have a go at using one once they know what it's like.

I'm really hoping that Reprap catches on with kids. It would be so huge to see the coming generation using their heads and hands to make new things again.

Hey, who are you calling "modern"?

I just wish my 12 year old would let me use my soldering iron. and also stop shutting off the TV
with the TV be gone he built??

Reprap fails because the plastic parts that it can make it self cost 360 dollars to purchase. 2 cents/cm3 seem slike a drasitc underestimation. If its so much cheaper to use the machine to build parts then why cant I buy the plastic parts for less then $100? I would think that the cheapest parts would be the self-replicable ones.

> Reprap fails because the plastic parts that it can make it self cost 360 dollars to purchase.
If they were mass produced they could be cheap. And a RepRap making them could do it, perhaps at a slightly higher price. But the fact is: it's a specialty item, there's no large end-market yet and the design keeps changing. So the parts ARE expensive, unless you make them the DIY way or you find a really cheap 3D printing service (do they exist?! Not that I know of...).

And for those first RepRaps, yes the parts are expensive. But this didn't stop hundreds of people buying RepRap kits! Then again, an ordinary printer, or a computer costs not much more than a RepRap. And a RepRap give you a unique opportunity to lead in a new 3D fabrication era!theme>

Nophead estimated a subsequently printed RepRap would cost 20 dollars in plastic parts (electricity and plastic). That's just about right because you can print almost 2 repraps from a standard spindle of plastic.

RepRap is failing? Don't take our word for it (naturally we're biassed into thinking what we do is cool), take that of the "Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Working Group" ( [www.crnano.org] )

"When the first

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Regards,

Erik de Bruijn
[Ultimaker.com] - [blog.erikdebruijn.nl]

Still it fails its proof of concept becuase it cant print its own parts more cheaply then they can be produced.

Bob Gilboy Wrote:
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> Still it fails its proof of concept becuase it
> cant print its own parts more cheaply then they
> can be produced.
>
Not to put too fine a point on it, utter bullshit.

If you are married your spouse and you can buy babies in Southeast Asia or Mexico a lot cheaper than you can afford to bear your own. Does that mean that you and your wife fail as a "proof of concept"?

Nowhere in the problem statement of Reprap that Dr Bowyer wrote up years ago is a caveat that Repraps have to reproduce themselves more cheaply than a purpose-built conventional mass-production line.

Nophead estimated a subsequently printed RepRap would cost 20 dollars in plastic parts (electricity and plastic).

If that's true, and hundreds of Repraps have been sold, why can't people buy the parts for $20+shipping instead of $360??? Especially if people are following the recommeneded each Reprap builds 2 for friends...

I assume it could happen, it's just not organized.