Wealth Without Money/zh cn

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-- Main.AdrianBowyer - 24 Feb 2006

跟钱没关的财富

巴斯?快速原型复制项目-背景介绍

A low-melting-point metal-alloy deposition head built in a commercial rapid prototyping machine. It is about 150mm tall. The head was made to demonstrate a new RP process that we have developed for the direct incorporation of electrical conductors into rapid prototypes, and actually to do the incorporating.


马克思和恩格斯在共产党宣言中说到,“无产阶级指的是当代工资劳动阶级,他们生产的产品并不归他们所有,廉价出卖掉自己的劳动力只是为了生存的人们。” 这个对当时社会问题的“诊断”本质上是对的; 这里的问题就是老生常谈的生产资料所有制的问题,人们可以很容易的利用手里已有的资源获得更多的资源,对于手里没有资源的人就得想尽方法努力去积攒资源,而实际上大部分人根本没机会积攒资源。对此马克思主义有说到,要想解决这一问题,那么无产阶级就得革命,通过革命的方式夺来生产资料,此乃是人类史上空前绝后最烂的主意。这主意会制造大量死亡,在近一百年里这个主意弄死的人比纳粹主义弄死的人还多。所以马克思主义者想出的这个“药方”并不像它的“诊断”那么正确 。所以它的预期也就不对,革命没有像它开始预期的首先发生在工业化最先进的国家(英国),相反,实际上马克思主义的革命趋向于发生在从农业化到工业化过度的国家中。

所以马克思只说对三分之一,没说对多少。 不过我们要继承他说对的部分(关于“诊断”的部分),继续往下读。

在二十世纪中期 冯-诺依曼 提出一个通用结构 一种可以自我复制的机械结构。 从此许多人都开始实现他的观点,有的在软件仿真方面实现, 有的在 物理实物方面实现。 而在物理实现方面,当下所有的系统结构都需要一堆非常繁杂的基础材料。而写这篇简短的文章的目的就是要你知道,在这里正从事一种 直写快速原型技术直写快速原型技术的开发,这个技术也许不是最重要部分,但也是比其他大部分合起来都应值得重视的。这个开发最终将实现一个可以自我复制的直写快速原型机器。我敢说这是我们已有无数冯-诺依曼通用结构中第一个有点用处的版本。 这里的“有点用处”我是指它的确可做些我们想要的东西出来。当你不知道我在说什么时,或者要开始争论为啥这个自我复制是那么重要呢,在此,不如先让我准确的描述一下这个“自我复制”,我指的这个“自我复制”的快速原型机器是可以制造它自己身上大部分的部件,但除了:

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自攻钢螺丝,
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黄铜轴衬,
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润滑膏,
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标准电子芯片,比如 微控制器 和 光学传感器,
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标准的变压器, 和
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步进电机.


This list is an attempt to make a compromise between immediately-achievable technology and the desirable aim of shortening or eliminating it altogether.注意这里就暗示了这得是一台由电气绝缘材料和导体组成的具有制造三维物体能力的机器, 就像上面那张沉积头的图片(没显示出来)。在制造出自己身上的部件后,我们用这些可以用来组装的部件和上面列出的标准部件来组装新的机器,然后再拷贝母机微控制器里的程序给新组装好的子机。 最开始冯-诺依曼的通用结构是一个可以像细胞或者水仙花一样自我复制并自我组装的机器。我们的机器只打算实现自我复制,并不实现自我组装。不过大自然也是存在四种模式啊:比如,不能自我复制和组装的岩石;可以自我复制,却不能组装起来的细菌;可以自己组装但不又能自我复制的蛋白质;以及最终的具备自复制自组装能力的,就像你我的身体。而你我又都是手脚灵活的,可以组装我们想要的东西(即使有时候我们也会头疼那些组装式家具),因此第二种模式(自我复制,但不能自我组装)便是我们最经济与实际的选择。 那么关于这篇文章就是在说怎么弄出个跟细菌一样可以自我复制的、有用的、(也许会跟一座桥一样大)东西...

这里还有些东西也许一开始不是必须的,但是如果可以实现,那么也将是很有用处的,比如用能自我复制的机器利用自制出合适的部件来拓展自己的移动轴,并自己进行校正(可能是利用一个精确的参考物,或者一种模式的标准尺寸)来改变自身,这样通过校正就可以使子机造出来的东西的精确度和母机一样了。

这样的自我复制快速原型机器将会表现出以下三个最重要的特征:

  • 1. 现有的这样的机器的数量和他们制造出的财富都将以指数方式增长,
  • 2. 这样的机器适用进化的规律,不再是大自然的选择,而是人类的选择,
  • 3. 最后机器将最小化对工业大批量制造模式的依赖,从而创造出更具创造力的财富。

让我们来更详细的阐明一下这三个特征。

首先,指数增长:很明显,所有当下的工程制造生产出的物品都是以算术累进来增长的。虽然有时候这样确实很快;不过我们来假设一个注塑成型机制造一些塑料梳子,一小时可以制造10000把,而一个自复制原型机器一天能复制出一个自己来,捎带再造一把梳子出来,当然我们得给它提供足够的空间,那么仅仅18天自复制原型机造的梳子数就超过了注塑成型机造的。自复制原型机以指数级的自我复制,当然他们制造的物品也是指数增长的。没有别的技术,能像自复制这样,而且指数增长也是算术上最快的增长方式(那怪所有大自然的有机体都是这样进行增长)。如果一天可以自复制出一台,那么在一个月后这个星球上的每个男人,女人,孩子都将可拥有一台。当然,原材料是一个瓶颈...

第二,进化:Secondly, evolution: 机器有能力复制自己,他自己的CAD设计也就跟它一起继承下来,可以是以可拷贝的CD方式存在。人们可以只是让机器自复制,或者他们可以改进设计(也可以是程序),然后让他们现有的母机制造出新的,更好的,子机来代替原来旧的。我们就是这么从狼那里搞出的拉普拉多狗。如此以来机器就得到了改进;而好的改进将会被选择,占据主要地位而,而其他的慢慢就边缘了或者消失了。这基本上就跟达尔文的进化论是一样的,但是有一点不同:大自然中,突变是随机的,这里只有很少一部分突变是有益的;;但是自复制原型机,每一个改进都是人们深思熟虑的。这就意味着进化的速度将会是很快的,至少在开始是这样。 同时我们也不用一开始就把东西设计的很完美,只要它能自复制并且还能造出一些有用的东西。 我们就具备了进化的可能,并可利用进化的规律来使更好的设计迅速浮现出来。 一开始设计中从外部拿来的部件,也有可能在逐渐的进化过程中,变成可以自己内部制造的部件。 最终我们发现一个不完美的机器任然可以造出一个最新最好的机器。

Thirdly, the minimal need for industrial manufacturing: it does not matter how much the first machine costs, the second will only cost as much as its raw materials and its assembly. And so will all subsequent machines. A company (or an individual) who acquires one machine can thereby have any number they want. This could turn rapid prototyping from a development into a production technology. It also means that people of modest means will be able to own them, and also let their friends have copies. They will be able to make themselves a new flute, a new digital camera, or just a new comb by downloading the designs for them from the Web. Some of the designs will be sold; some will be available free. Industrial production may be needed for the raw materials in considerable quantities, and will be subject to the normal market forces that keep the price of non-innovative standard products low. (Note that strategies such as those used by printer manufacturers to keep the price of consumable inkjet cartridges artificially high - having unique protected designs, and incorporating counter chips to prevent refilling - will not work with the raw materials for self-copying rapid-prototyping machines because people will simply re-design the machines to bypass such artificial restrictions on the materials they consume.) However, there is also another route to the creation of raw materials, and that is to use polymers like polylactic acid that can be made by fermentation from biomass. Thus a person with a few tens of square meters of land on which to grow a starch-crop (like maize) could make their own polymer (the machine being able to make the fermenter, of course). Then not only would the machine be self-replicating, the material supply would be too. In addition, it would even take CO2 out of the atmosphere and lock it away in plastic goods, though polylactic acid is biodegradable.

- - o - -

I have no need to buy a spare part for my broken vacuum cleaner when I can download one from the Web; indeed, I can download the entire vacuum cleaner. Nor do I need a shop or an Internet mail-order warehouse to supply me with these things. I just need to be able to buy standard parts and materials at the supermarket alongside my weekly groceries.

The self-copying rapid-prototyping machine will allow people to manufacture for themselves many of the things they want, including the machine that does the manufacturing. It is the first technology that we can have that will simultaneously make people more wealthy whilst reducing the need for industrial production.

However, when everyone has a wealth machine in their attic, they will make things on a whim, and most of those things will be junk. Also, there will be no real need to make things durable - when something breaks, people will just make another. Soon we will all be knee-deep in broken or unwanted consumer goods and these will need to be efficiently re-cycled back into raw building material. I originally thought that, along with building-material production and distribution, this recycling was going to be a big industrial opportunity. Then I realised that every machine can make its own small recycler - it can eat.

- - o - -


So the replicating rapid prototyping machine will allow the revolutionary ownership, by the proletariat, of the means of production. But it will do so without all that messy and dangerous revolution stuff, and even without all that messy and dangerous industrial stuff. Therefore I have decided to call this process Darwinian Marxism...

Adrian Bowyer 2 February 2004; updated: 21 June 2005, 1 December 2005, 24 February 2006, 18 March 2007

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